The NFL Draft is the ultimate crapshoot, as no one really knows how each prospect will turn out, regardless of how polished they might be. In fact, most first-round draft picks do not live up to expectations, as the transition to the NFL represents a massive jump in competition that many players are unprepared for.Unfortunately, there are fifteen Ryan Leafs, who only played three underwhelming years after being selected with the second overall pick in 1998, for every one Tom Brady, a sixth-round pick from the 2000 NFL Draft. There have been countless players whose NFL careers were short-lived due to their inability to adapt to the professional level despite entering the league with extremely high hopes.
10 Justin Blackmon
Justin Blackmon, who the Jaguars selected with the fifth pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, had all the skills to become an elite receiver at the NFL level, and his playing style was eerily similar to another notable Oklahoma State alum, Dez Bryant. He also entered the league with a lot of baggage, which foreshadowed his eventual demise.
The outlook for Blackmon was not always bleak, as he led all rookies with 865 receiving yards in his first season. Unfortunately, it was downhill from there, as the troubled playmaker only played in four more games before getting suspended indefinitely after multiple failed drug tests. He absolutely lit up the stat sheets during his short time in the league, and there is no telling how good he could have been if he had gotten out of his own way.
He was not the only player drafted in the top five of the 2012 class who wound up being a bust, as Trent Richardson, the third-overall pick, also quickly fizzled out after an impressive rookie year (he was not included on this list since he still netted Cleveland a first-round pick via trade).
9 Henry Ruggs III
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Henry Ruggs dropped the ball. Like Blackmon, Ruggs, who the Raiders selected with the 12th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, showed significant promise during his short time in the league (he played the same amount of games as the Oklahoma State star). However, he was also unable to beat his demons, as his foolish decision to drive drunk not only prematurely ended his career, but it also took the life of a young woman and her dog.
It looked as though Ruggs was ready for a breakout sophomore campaign (the speedster was on pace for over 1,000 yards) before the incident, and there is no telling how great he could have been. He is not the only player Las Vegas regrets choosing in the draft, as fellow first-rounder Damon Arnette has already gotten released by the Raiders and Chiefs and is currently a free agent.
8 Dee Milliner
The University of Alabama is a football powerhouse that regularly churns out NFL-ready prospects. However, not everyone from the school succeeds in the league, and Dee Milliner, a former five-star recruit and unanimous All-American in 2012, is one of the most egregious examples of a player who fell well short of expectations.
The Jets got praised for their selection of Milliner with the ninth pick (he was projected as high as the first pick in the pre-draft process) in the dreadful 2013 NFL Draft, and he was supposed to immediately fill the shoes left by Darrelle Revis, who was traded four days before the draft. Nevertheless, he struggled to adapt to the speed of the NFL and was benched three times during his rookie season alone. While Milliner was awful on the field, his worst quality was his inability to stay on it, as he only played in 21 of 48 games in three years in the league.
7 Luke Joeckel
Luke Joeckel is another member of the infamous 2013 class, which featured offensive tackles as three of the top four picks, who fell flat despite entering the league with sky-high expectations. The former Texas A&M standout, who the Jaguars selected with the second-overall pick, was billed as a franchise left tackle who would fortify the left side of Jacksonville's line for a decade.
However, he became the perfect example of how difficult it is to predict how a player will perform in the pros. Despite being considered one of the safest prospects of the entire class, it quickly became clear he would not live up to that billing. Joeckel fell to the same fate that so many highly-regarded players do, as he struggled to stay healthy (although he also didn't look the part when he was healthy) and only played in 50 games during five disappointing seasons in the league.
He was much less impactful than fellow tackle prospects Eric Fisher, the top pick of the draft, and Lane Johnson, the fourth pick, as both players are still in the league.
6 Greg Robinson
The loaded 2014 NFL Draft featured 13 players in the first 17 picks who went to at least one Pro Bowl. However, Greg Robinson, who the Rams selected with the second-overall pick, was not one of them despite being seen as the league's next great offensive tackle (somehow, considering he was only dominant for one season at Auburn) during the pre-draft process.
The former War Eagle got stuck in no man's land far too often in the league, as he had poor technique and would frequently get overwhelmed against quality defenders. He played seven years as a low-tier starter before getting arrested for possession of over 150 lbs. of marijuana.
5 Kevin White
Kevin White may have been a one-year wonder at West Virginia, but he was still considered an NFL-ready prospect who would step in and become a top option in the passing game early in his career. He quickly rose up draft boards after a standout performance at the 2015 NFL Scouting Combine, and there was growing buzz that he could be the top receiver taken in the draft, ahead of the more polished Amari Cooper. Cooper wound up going first with the fourth pick in the draft, but White was not far behind, as he was picked by the Bears three spots later.
White may have been a late riser through the pre-draft process, but that is where his momentum died. The receiver, who was supposed to replace the departed Brandon Marshall, just could not stay healthy. His rookie season ended before it even began, as he suffered a stress fracture in his shin during Chicago's offseason program. It was more of the same from there, as he only played in five games during his first three seasons and never regained the explosiveness he displayed in college.
A Hail Mary reception in the waning moments of a game against the Patriots in 2018 almost produced a career-defining moment for White, but he caught the ball short of the goal line and got tackled at the one-yard line in a 38-31 loss. Poetic. ​​​​​​​
4 Josh Rosen
Josh Rosen, who the Cardinals selected with the 10th pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, famously quipped that there were nine 'mistakes' picked ahead of him. Five of the mistakes have been Pro Bowlers, and three (Josh Allen, Quenton Nelson, and Roquan Smith) are already some of the best in the league at their position.
Despite being billed as an NFL-ready prospect, Rosen looked overwhelmed during an uninspiring rookie season and was promptly traded to Miami after Arizona selected Kyler Murray just one year later. Rosen is already a career journeyman who has spent time with FIVE teams in only three years.
Rosen can find solace in the fact that he was at least right about Sam Darnold, who the Jets selected with the third pick, as he has had a similarly inauspicious (he was left off the list due to the compensation Gang Green received for the former USC product last offseason) start to his career.
3 John Ross III
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John Ross is the perfect example of the league putting too much emphasis on measurables, as he shot up draft boards after setting a record with a 4.22-second 40-yard-dash time at the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine. The blazing-fast time was enough for the Bengals to select him 9th overall in the draft (right before perennial Pro Bowlers Patrick Mahomes, Marshon Lattimore, and Deshaun Watson).
The writing was on the wall early in Ross' career, as he failed to crack their underwhelming depth chart and did not have a catch during a disastrous rookie season. Injuries have also contributed to the speedster becoming one of the most massive busts in recent memory, as he only played in 27 of 64 possible games during four years in Cincy and is currently a free agent (with less than 1,000 career receiving yards in five seasons). ​​​​​​​
2 Clelin Ferrell
Is it a bit early to consider Ferrell, the fourth-overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, a bust? Maybe, as the Raiders' defensive end is only 24 and has a better chance of turning around his career than most on this list, but until he displays any redeeming qualities that one would expect from a top-five selection, it is a title that he deserves.
Many were shocked by the selection (former Raiders GM Mike Mayock had a penchant for doing that), as he had a low ceiling for the high draft slot, and those who questioned it were quickly proven correct. Ferrell's playing time has dipped each year, and he has fallen well below expectations for a top five selection. His teammate Maxx Crosby, a 2019 fourth-round selection, has become the player Vegas hoped Ferrell would be. ​​​​​​​
1 Justin Gilbert
Could a list about draft busts be complete without at least one member of the Browns? Countless Dawg Pound draftees were spared since they were drafted later in the round, including Johnny Manziel and 28-year-old rookie Brandon Weeden. However, Cleveland would not have been so lucky if there were room for more entries, as they would have many more entries on a list double this size.
Nevertheless, their selection of Justin Gilbert, the 8th overall pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, was especially egregious. He only spent two years with the team before being traded to Pittsburgh for a sixth-rounder, and he was out of the league before his rookie contract was complete. To make matters worse, the following nine picks all made at least one Pro Bowl (and eight got selected to multiple), and Cleveland would have been much better off with any of them.