With the conclusion of the NFL Draft this past April as well as many of the most prominent free agents having signed with their new teams, the time has come to assess the many failures and occasional triumphs of the major offseason moves engineered by the front offices of football franchises. During these months when the game is not played, football teams harbor hopes of upward improvement (like the Cleveland Browns, forever the Browns)--or better still, sustained success (L.A. Rams). As such, the focus of this list will be primarily concerning the "bad" and "ugly" teams of 2017, with a few of the "good" sprinkled in here and there for balance. This resonates correctly, as those teams that did not make the playoffs in 2017 have obviously been the most motivated to upgrade their personnel through high profile trades, free agency signings and/or draft selections with the intention of bringing the franchise and its fans playoff redemption at the conclusion of the 2018 regular season.
And there is justification for scrutinizing virtually every pro football transaction with a magnifying glass, as the NFL has morphed into a 24/7/365 league, in which the pressures of regret and failure--as well as positive expectations fueled by hope-- are felt even during the spring and summer months, before training camp opens and a single exhibition game is played. And this incredibly busy off-season has brought with it plenty of moves that have already been questioned, doubted and even scoffed at, and some even celebrated. Additionally, there is an element of malleability with this list; for what might be a "regret" for this season (2018), may be perceived as a "smart" move the next year or two (2019, 2020), should the player in question then wind up having the type of season the team anticipated in the first place, whether he was signed as a free agent, traded for, or drafted out of college. But for the purpose of this list, the most likely outcome of a team's acquisition for the soon-to-be-arriving 2018 regular season is what will be assessed and predicted.
15 Regret: Cleveland Browns' 1st Round Draft Choices
Will the "quarterback curse" of the Cleveland Browns continue? Since the franchise was reborn, the Browns have gone through 28 starting quarterbacks since they returned in 1999. New trade acquisition Tyrod Taylor will be #29. But the eventual #30 may well be the "savior" the Browns have been seeking all these years, Baker Mayfield, the flamboyant Heisman Trophy winner out of Oklahoma, whom the Browns selected 1st overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. But is Mayfield the next Russell Wilson...or Johnny Manziel? No one knows yet and that's why the draft is a crapshoot, which necessitates one must play the surer odds. Meaning, the Browns should have chosen USC's Sam Darnold or UCLA's Josh Rosen, especially given their aforementioned nightmare at quarterback for the last two decades.
Meanwhile, Cleveland's second first-round choice also drew criticism from fans and pundits after they selected Ohio State University cornerback Denzel Ward with the fourth overall pick, when impact defensive players like fantastic edge rusher Bradley Chubb and game-changing linebacker Roquan Smith were still available. If Cleveland truly targeted Ward above all others, then they should have traded down with another team to acquire another pick or two and they still would have been able to nab Ward with a lower choice at a better value.
And there was already an "uh-oh" sign with Ward, who missed mini-camp with a hip injury. Time will tell if the Browns, a team that always gets it wrong, should have selected Darnold and Chubb, or Rosen and Smith, or Josh Allen and Minkah Fitzpatrick as their quarterback/defensive stopper first-round combo draft sandwich, instead of Mayfield and Ward.
14 Regret: Patriots Pass On Brady's Successor
After the New England Patriots traded away Jimmy Garoppolo to the San Francisco 49ers last season, they left themselves vulnerable behind Tom Brady, who may be all-world, but is not all-invulnerable. For example, in 2008, Brady missed virtually the entire season with an injury sustained in the first game of that season, and it could always happen again. Further speculation was raised when the Patriots stockpiled high draft picks prior to the draft, yet didn't select one of the top quarterbacks available in the first three rounds. The Patriots finally drafted a quarterback when they selected LSU's Danny Etling. Etling was only the 11th of 13 total passers chosen in the 2018 draft, and the 219th player selected overall.
Etling had some success in college, it's just that he is not highly rated according to the various metrics and combine showings that define quarterbacks like Mayfield and Darnold as worthy of high draft status.
But that doesn't mean the NFL scouting and pre-draft world isn't wrong about ol' Danny boy, just as they missed out on a player who fell all the way to the sixth round in the 2000 draft---Mr. Tom Brady himself. Even Pats Pulpit--as biased towards Belichick and crew as it gets--proclaimed being "befuddled" by the Patriots seeming lack of concern over having a quarterback plan behind Brady, be it necessitated by an injury or Tom's inevitable retirement.
13 Smart: Arizona Trading Up To Get Rosen
The Arizona Cardinals were among the "winners" of the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft with their trading up to secure the number 10 pick, which the promptly used to snatch up to select quarterback Josh Rosen of UCLA. Rosen's supreme confidence tempered by intelligence should serve him well in the NFL, and he very easily could have been the number one overall selection by the aforementioned Browns. Rosen also has fiery emotion in order to motivate himself to take it to higher levels and he has the intangibles down--with the possible exception of camaraderie with teammates. But winning and success can breed togetherness, at least on the necessary surface. Despite Rosen's excellent stats at UCLA, which included tossing 59 touchdowns in only 30 games, there's a feeling of untapped potential with Josh.
At Rosen's rookie minicamp on May 11, new Cardinals coach Steve Wilks said Rosen was "phenomenal" at calling plays and working out of the huddle, per ESPN. One of the primary reasons ex-UCLA coach Jim Mora Jr. got canned was that he didn't do more with Rosen. Bruins fans can only imagine the glory that Rosen may have achieved had he been paired with current Bruins coach Chip Kelly and his innovative schemes and lightning-quick offensive pacing. As for the Cardinals, they believe they've chosen their quarterback for a glorious future that could include a Super Bowl title long before Cleveland gets there.
12 Regret: Vikings Don't Get Help For Kirk Cousins
Perhaps no team made a bigger offseason splash than the Minnesota Vikings when they inked free agent prize quarterback Kirk Cousins, late of Washington. A 13-3 Vikings team now believes it has the field general to take the franchise to the promised land of a first Super Bowl title. However, a lingering issue remains; did the Vikings provide enough firepower for their shiny, brand-new $84 million signal-caller? Certainly, Cousins, who had multiple options of teams to select from, chose Minnesota because they are a loaded franchise with defensive and offensive talent. Yet, while the Vikings offense could use some more dynamic playmakers (as could most teams), all Minnesota management did was draft an offensive tackle (Brian O'Neill, Pittsburgh) in the second round and then a tight end (Tyler Conklin, out of pigskin "powerhouse" Central Michigan) in the fifth, and also a guard (Colby Gossett, Appalachian State) in the sixth.
While Cousins does have some promising personnel, like second-year running back Dalvin Cook, if the Vikings are to compete with some of the high profile high offenses in the NFL during high-scoring shoot-'em-up playoff games, Minnesota may need all their playmakers to step their game up if no more outside help is forthcoming for their upcoming regular season.
11 Regret: Cowboys Don't Trade For Earl Thomas
Perhaps no team has a bigger spotlight on them this upcoming season than the Dallas Cowboys, which can be partially attributed to their higher-than-high profile owner Jerry Jones. The Cowboys also are pressured from their multitudinous fanbase that touches every state in the U.S., and likely, every country in the world. Dallas is coming off a disappointing non-playoff season (one year after having the best record in the NFC, yet coming up short in the postseason once again). And worst of all, the Pokes and their followers had to bare the shame of their blood rivals Philadelphia Eagles winning a Super Bowl, while the Cowboys are at 22 years and counting since they last won it all.
In an effort to shore up their woeful secondary, the Cowboys were repeatedly linked to the Seahawks' spectacular safety Earl Thomas, who would provide an immediate upgrade to a Cowboys' defensive backfield in need of veteran leadership and execution.
Per the Shan Shariff of The Fan 105.3, Dallas tried to engineer a trade for Thomas during the NFL Draft, but that fell through when the Seahawks rejected Dallas' on-the-clock offer of a 3rd round draft choice.
There's still a chance Dallas will engineer a trade for Thomas before the season commences, but either way, the Cowboys better do something---CBS Sports tagged the Pokes as a "team to disappoint" in 2018, and their weak secondary could be their downfall, especially in high-scoring shootouts.
10 Smart: Rams Go For It All
After an incredible 2017 season that saw the Rams go from NFC West worst-to-first, and suddenly have as bright of a future as any NFL team, L.A. had quite the interesting offseason as well, shifting and moving parts here and there, although mostly dealing with AFC teams and players outside of their own conference. The Rams want to take the next step and contend for a title, and in doing so, picked up Ndamukong Suh, one of the most powerful defensive lineman in all football.
Rams head coach Sean McVay is confident that Suh, who spent the last three seasons harassing quarterbacks for the Miami Dolphins, is "well-equipped" to withstand a heavy workload. The pairing of Suh on the defensive front with the incumbent NFL defensive player of the year, Aaron Donald, who tallied 11 sacks in only 14 games for L.A. last season, can only mean great things. And it wasn't just the front seven where the Rams improved greatly (on paper, at least); L.A.'s defensive backfield was bolstered by the acquisitions of Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, and Lamarcus Joyner. The Rams also made sure not to neglect their quarterback-on-the-rise Jared Goff, trading for ex-New England Patriots wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who caught 65 Tom Brady passes--seven for touchdowns--for 1,082 yards last season.
9 Regret: Raiders Sign Jordy Nelson
In the context of the return of Jon Gruden as head coach of the soon-to-be-departing-for-Vegas-but-still-currently-residing-in Oakland Raiders, the Silver & Black's signing of former Packers standout receiver Jordy Nelson has an internal--but not an external--logic to it. Gruden is promising the return of "old school" football, eschewing the prioritization of a metrics-oriented system that so many other teams have successfully adopted. The Super Bowl champion Eagles have embraced metrics, applying them both to roster management as well as in-game decisions, per New York Times.
The last time the Raiders won a Super Bowl (1983-84 season), America had Ronald Reagan in his first term as president, and considered "metrics" to be an obscure Canadian measuring system, so the Silver & Black would do well to consider all options that could lead to improvement and victories--including metrics.
Signing a potentially overvalued Nelson might not be the best course of action, especially when they already had a more productive Michael Crabtree on their roster, but Gruden released Crabtree.
Receivers in their 30s like Jordy Nelson who begin showing noticeable declines in their game don't tend to last very long in the league. One stat is particularly troubling; Nelson averaged a pitiful 7.1 yards per catch after his injury and for the season ranked 72nd of out 74 NFL wideouts in that category--ouch. Ultimately, the Nelson signing feels like a move borne more of Gruden's emotion towards the gritty veteran, rather than a reasoned approach at surrounding quarterback Derek Carr with maximum weaponry.
8 Regret: Giants Sign Jonathan Stewart
When the New York Giants selected Penn State running back Saquon Barkley as the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, it may have gotten some G-Men fans to think, "Oh yeah, we signed Jonathan Stewart last month, too." Stewart, who spent his entire decade-long career in Carolina, averaged a mere 3.4 yards a carry for the Panthers in 2017. A positive alternative could be Stewart being highly motivated to prove pundits wrong. However, it's preferable for a player to function on pure skill rather than needing anger to play better, as intangibles such as "revenge" are much more difficult to sustain than talent. It's not so much than Stewart was a terrible signing, but that the Giants have so many holes and needs coming off such a disappointing 2017 season.
During a March press conference, Stewart told reporters, “I’ve got a lot left. The only reason why I would be playing is if I knew I could play and I know I can play, Dave (Gettleman, Giants general manager) knows I can play — there is a lot that I feel I want to prove and writing my story.”
If Saquon Barkley is the all-everything back that a 2nd selection overall choice demands, then Stewart may not be necessary. On the other hand, the veteran could provide invaluable guidance and insight for Barkley.
7 Smart: Bucs Get Tough On Defense
For 2018, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need to get tougher and perhaps more importantly, develop an identity for their defense. And that's precisely what they've done--at least on paper, until the games are played out for real starting in September. The Buccaneers finished last in the entire league in defensive rankings of Defense adjusted Value Over Average, which despite the name can be applied to both offense and defense. The DVOA metric is utilized by front-office honchos to measure a given unit's effectiveness by comparing each team's successes (or failures) on down-and-distance situations to the league average.
In 2017, the Bucs brought up the rear in terms of yards allowed per game, yards allowed per play, sacks and sacks rate, tackles for a loss, and oh yeah, third-down stop rate. That's a really bad defense, folks, and now you know why the Bucs traded for Jason Pierre-Paul. The Bucs also scored one of the most sought-after prizes of this year's NFL Draft when they selected defensive tackle Vita Vea out of Washington. Vea, who is Tongan, has a real full name of Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea--so it's a lot easier to just call him "Vita." Vea is loaded with potential, and the Bucs entire defensive line/front seven could well be a drastically improved unit in 2018. As the Beatles once sang, "It can't get no worse."
6 Regret: Steelers Don't Find Ryan Shazier Replacement
None other than draft guru Mel Kuiper Jr criticized the Steelers for not selecting a linebacker in the draft, giving Pittsburgh an overall grade of only "C+". While the Steelers have done a tremendous job honoring and respecting fallen linebacker Ryan Shazier--he dramatically walked onto the stage to announce the Steelers first-round choice in April, a truly inspiring moment. But from that point, it was a lot of disappointment for many Steelers fans.
Unfortunately, instead of selecting a linebacker, the Steelers went with safety Terrell Edmunds.
While the Steelers need a safety and the best inside linebackers had already been selected, it begs the question as to why the Steelers did not engineer a trade to move up to choose an upscale inside linebacker like Terrell's brother, Rashaan Edmunds (chosen by the Bills at 16) or Leighton Vander Esch (snatched up by the Cowboys at 19). It sure worked out for the Steel Curtain in 2003 when they traded up to select safety Troy Polamalu out of USC. Three Super Bowl appearances and a highlight reel full of amazing plays s the Steelers made the right choice with Polamalu. But Edmunds appears to be a solid pick. But what about getting a linebacker in a later round?
Steelers quarterback "Big Ben" Roethlisberger openly questioned Pittsburgh trading up to select quarterback Mason Rudolph in the third round, instead of choosing another player (like maybe a linebacker?) who might make a more immediate impact on a team expected to challenge for a Super Bowl title in 2018.
5 Regret: Seahawks Dismantling Their Defense
For NFL executives and coaches, the salary cap as something to be as inevitably feared as death and taxes are for the rest of the slobs who live in the "real world." The Seahawks have had to part with key members of their one-day-to-be-proclaimed-legendary, Super Bowl winning "Legion of Boom" defense, including future hall-of-famer, corneback Richard Sherman. The proverbial finishing salt was sewn in Seattle's collective wound when Sherman signed with the Seahawks' bitterest rival--the San Francisco 49ers in March. The 49ers are an upwardly mobile franchise with new savior quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, while the Seahawks are projected to take a step back in 2018. It should surprise no one that Sherman's march back to Seattle is slated to be a prime-time NBC Sunday Night Football match-up this coming December 2, with the more anticlimactic rematch in Santa Clara, California on December 16.
Besides Sherman, the Seahawks must also compensate for the loss of pass rusher Michael Bennett, who will now fortify the Philadelphia Eagles with an even more dominant front-seven. Of course, all players age and move on and/or retire, but the big problem for the Seahawks is that they've done an inadequate job in drafting or signing replacement players to compensate for the loss of the Shermans and the Bennetts, leaving the defense to be likely referred to the as the "Legion of Loom," as in all they're capable of is weakly weaving yarn.
4 Smart: Chargers Pounce On Mike Pouncey
Only 15 minutes of driving time separates the Los Angeles Rams from their shared-city brethren, the Chargers, but in 2017 the two teams were worlds apart, as the aforementioned Rams won the NFC West, and have made improvements that promise a possibly stronger 2018, but the Chargers missed out on the playoff party with a modest 9-7 record. Both Los Angeles teams may very well be playoff-bound when the 2018 regular season is all said and done, because the Chargers are brimming with talent on both sides of the ball. And their already on-the-rise offensive line added toughness and skill in center Mike Pouncey, late of the Miami Dolphins, who signed with Los Angeles in March.
ESPN suggested plugging in Pouncey to the Bolts' offensive line could raise that unit to elite status, as he joins the likes of tackle Russell Okung and guard Dan Feeney. As Pouncey himself explained to Chargers.com, he chose the Chargers because of all that aforementioned talent, including quarterback Philip Rivers. While Mike Pouncey may not be the equal of his brother Maurkice, the standout center of the Pittsburgh Steelers, he'll be a welcome addition, and L.A.'s acquisition of Pouncey was one of the best value free agent signings. The Chargers should be regarded as a dark horse Super Bowl team.
3 Regret: Titan Fire Mularkey
The Tennessee Titans are coming off their most successful season since 2002-03, as they actually won a posteason game in January. So naturally, the often backwards-run franchise fired their head coach, Mike Mularkey. The entire situation with Mularkey was messy; you almost get the feeling the Titans' front office would have rather seen the team fail this past season, than win that playoff game that threatened to throw a wrench in their carefully laid plans to can Mularkey from the get-go. But in the end, the Titans gave Mularkey the boot, anyway.
If Mularkey had gone on to upset the Patriots, no way could the Titans have fired him. This is not implying new coach Mike Vrabel won't work out; maybe he's the next Bill Belichick. Vrabel is certainly highly regarded; but he and Titans GM Jon Robinson better hope the Titans play well and/or aren't hit by injuries and fail to replicate their 2017 success. Because every coach has to have good, healthy players performing at high levels to be successful on a regular basis. Here's why firing Mularkey is a potential regret:
Unless Vrabel takes the Titans to the upcoming season's AFC Championship Game or further, his hire could be perceived as a mistake.
It's always better for a new coach to follow a losing season, as there's nowhere to go but up. But if the Titans stumble or regress at all in 2018, Vrabel and Tennessee management will be on the hook, and the "Bring Back Mularkey" movement may begin to circulate.
2 Regret: Panthers Losing Andrew Norwell
The Panthers let one of the best offensive lineman in the NFL walk away when guard Andrew Norwell signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars this past March. Does anyone think for a moment that diva, errr, "passionate" quarterback Cam Newton is happy with that decision? Standout offensive lineman Norwell may not have the most recognizable name, but among those in the know in the NFL he was considered one of the top-of-the-hill free agent prizes to be secured, and the Jaguars wisely added Norwell to their own offensive front wall.
The decision by the veteran offensive lineman, entering his fifth season, to sign with the Jaguars is telling, given that team's aspires to play in the franchise's first Super Bowl for the 2018-19 season after coming oh-so-close last year. And a player like Norwell, a first team All-Pro selection (much more prestigious than making the Pro Bowl) in 2017, could go a long way towards making the Jags' offense more dominant in 2018, to accompany its already deadly defense.
As for Newton, it's not like he was avoiding being sacked with Norwell--Cam's been taken down 35 times or more every season but one in his career--but without Norwell, Cam could be eating grass and dirt even more often in 2018 than in his previous campaigns.
1 Smart: Jets Trade Up To Get Their Franchise QB
On St. Patrick's Day, the New York Jets struck the luck o' the Irish, and in the process, perhaps forever altered their football destiny when they traded up to the number three pick previously held by the Indianapolis Colts. In doing so, the Jets took the risk they truly had to take if they are going to elevate to the next level--consistently winning. Quite simply, the teams with the best quarterbacks are the perennial contenders, and Darnold gives the Jets a chance to do just that. It's extremely early, but it's already looking like the Jets made the right choice.
Darnold completed his first minicamp over the first weekend of May and, as graded by NJ.com, performed more than adequately when it came to the categories of footwork (Sam received an "A"), mobility (A+), decision making (B), ball security (B), leadership (A-), interaction with coaches (A), and more tangibly, short accuracy (B+), and deep accuracy (A-). Slingin' Sam even scored an A- when it comes to handling the media, which is obviously vital in New York City.
Translation: Darnold has the makings of a successful quarterback in the NFL, and the Jets definitely made a decision that was as bold as it was logical in moving up to draft him.