Being a Super Bowl Champion is a feat that many quarterbacks fantasize about, but only few can accomplish. Most Super Bowl quarterbacks have a ring for a reason, and that reason is their immense talent. However, Super Bowl quarterbacks can simply be average players in very favorable situations. Take Brad Johnson, for example. Johnson won a ring with Tampa Bay back in 2002, and while he did have a solid season, it was the Bucs' stellar defense that propelled them atop the league.
Many NFL starters today have a very realistic shot at the glory of winning it all, especially with many of the league's recent Super Bowl quarterbacks in the twilight of their careers. Now, some starters are probably more likely to get struck by lightning than win a Super Bowl ring, but the beauty of competitive sports is that everyone has a chance (technically). Yes, even you Cleveland--you have a chance, too... sort of.
This is NOT a simple ranking of these quarterbacks. Many factors determine the rank of each QB on this list. Younger quarterbacks are generally given an advantage, as they have much more time to prove themselves than quarterbacks in their 30s. Additionally, quarterbacks on better teams are given a boost due to the fact that it is more likely for their team to make a playoff run in the near future. So with that, I present to you the odds that each ringless starting quarterback has of winning a championship.
22 Josh McCown - 300:1
I'm listing Josh McCown as the starter for the Browns because he will likely return to action in a week or two after injuring his shoulder in week 2. McCown was named the starter in Cleveland after Robert Griffin III suffered a shoulder injury in week 1, and since McCown's week 2 injury, rookie Cody Kessler has filled in quite adequately.
Even when McCown returns, you can pretty much guarantee that the Browns aren't winning a Super Bowl this season as they are the only winless team in the NFL through 6 weeks of play. Oh yeah, and McCown is 37 years old. Not good.
21 Jay Cutler - 100:1
Jay Cutler has seen better days. He appeared in the NFC Championship game way back in 2010, but Cutler's Bears haven't even reached the playoffs since. Cutler is now 33 years old and a part of a team with a dysfunctional offense and a poor defense. Cutler's career is now on an incredibly unpromising path and his chances of winning the Super Bowl are slim to none. Cutler is a rapidly regressing quarterback on one of the league's worst teams. I'd be impressed if Cutler even makes another playoff appearance in his career, and shocked if he ever wins it all.
20 Case Keenum - 50:1
Jared Goff is the future of the Rams. Well, at least Jeff Fisher hopes he is after LA drafted him first overall in this past year's draft. The Rams are electing to sit Goff for the time being, and as a result, Case Keenum is suddenly a starting quarterback in the NFL. This shouldn't persist for much longer and I can't imagine Keenum will be a long-term starting quarterback on any other team following this season. Keenum is simply not start material in the NFL. He could win a ring as a backup like current NFL starters Brock Osweiler and Tyrod Taylor did though.
19 Colin Kaepernick - 45:1
Let's just say that Colin Kaepernick's most notable action this season wasn't on the football field, it was on the sidelines. After leading the Niners to the Super Bowl way back in 2012, and then making an appearance in the NFC Championship the year after, Kaepernick hasn't made any headlines due to his performances on the turf. Kaepernick actually just won his starting job back which he initially lost to world class underachiever Blaine Gabbert.
In his first game as the starter, Kap completed an abysmal 44.8% of his passes while throwing for 187 yards and one touchdown. Bottom line, Kaepernick isn't what he used to be and it doesn't seem likely that the 49ers will make any sort of playoff run in the near future (They are currently 1-5).
18 Ryan Tannehill - 33:1
Ryan Tannehill has actually developed into a decent (albeit, not great) starting QB for the Dolphins. The past two seasons he has thrown a total of 51 touchdowns and 24 picks while also amassing over 4,000 passing yards in each campaign. The biggest problem with Tannehill is that his skill set alone will not win him a Super Bowl ring. In other words, Tannehill would need a very good team around him in order to have a shot at a ring. Currently, the Dolphins are an average at best team with an underwhelming defense. Unless the Fins drastically improve in the next few seasons or Tannehill becomes the starting QB for a better team (Both of which are unlikely), Tannehill won't be flaunting the Lombardi trophy in his career.
17 Kirk Cousins - 33:1
Has the NFL ever seen a streakier quarterback? After throwing for 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in the first 6 weeks of the 2015 season, Cousins closed out the year with 23 touchdowns and just 3 picks in his final 10 games. Unfortunately for the Redskins, Cousins seems to have returned to his early season form. Cousins has just one game in which he has not thrown an interception this season through 6 games. The Redskins likely won't put up with Cousins' inconsistencies much longer (Another season or two at most), making his chances of winning a ring in Washington (Or any city) very small.
16 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 30:1
To put it simply, Ryan Fitzpatrick is not having a very good season thus far. His 10 interceptions in just 5 games lead the league, and he has only thrown for multiple touchdowns once this season. The Jets are 1-4 and have dropped their last 3 games, so while the playoff pursuit isn't dead in New York, there are two other teams in the same state that are much more likely to be playing in mid January. Technically, Fitz is just about in an average quarterback's prime at 33 years old, and after playing well in what was a 10-6 season for the Jets last year, there is some hope that he can win a ring with the Jets before he breaks down; there's some hope, not a lot.
15 Philip Rivers - 25:1
Philip Rivers has been one of the most statistically prolific quarterbacks of this generation, yet he has only reached the AFC Championship game once in his career. Rivers is now approaching 35 years old and the Chargers are just about as bad as they have ever been with Rivers as their signal caller. Coming off of a 4-12 season and already 2-4 this year, the Chargers probably won't reach the playoffs in the coming years. With Rivers' career coming to a close, the Chargers probably won't be in the position to make a Super Bowl run until after he retires.
14 Andy Dalton - 20:1
Andy Dalton is notorious for consistently reaching the playoffs, and then losing in the Wild Card Round. Is there really a good reason to believe that this trend will change in Cincy? The Bengals have been a very solid team throughout the past 5 seasons and Dalton has carried the team well, but they haven't been able to make noise in January. Dalton is 29 years old and playing at a high level, but he'll have to do more when games matter most to bring him up to elite quarterback status. I'm apprehensive to bump Dalton any higher on this list until he shows that capability.
13 Alex Smith - 20:1
It's fair to say that Alex Smith has had a rather up and down career. He was widely seen as a major draft bust after being selected first overall and throwing for 51 touchdowns and 53 interceptions through his first five seasons in the league. Somehow, Smith picked it up in his 6th season, and ever since, he's been a quality starting quarterback.
Smith has a phenomenal 61% win percentage in his last 6 seasons and has only missed the playoffs once in that span. However, while Smith has all of the tools to be a Super Bowl caliber quarterback, he hasn't quite been surrounded with a Super Bowl caliber team in the past few seasons. At 32 years old, Alex Smith is just about at his prime, and he finds himself on a solid Chiefs team that is 3-2 thus far. Alex Smith will still have to elevate his game, because his conservative style of play may not get him further than the Divisional Round of the Playoffs at this point.
12 Matthew Stafford - 15:1
Matthew Stafford can certainly move up on this list by season's end. Detroit's offense was clicking in the second half of last season, and it appears that their momentum has not diminished. The Lions are off to a 3-3 start this season so far, with promising victories against the Colts, Eagles, and Rams, and they haven't even lost one game by more than 7 points. Staff is only 28 years old, so he does have time to turn the Lions into a Super Bowl contender. However, until Stafford can actually carry Detroit past the Wild Card round, the Lions don't seem like a likely candidate to hoist the Lombardi trophy in the near future.
11 Matt Ryan - 12:1
Raise your hand if you thought that Matt Ryan would be well on his way to an All-Pro season through 6 games of the 2016-17 season. It may be too early to make such a wild prediction, but the fact of the matter is, you can't really name a quarterback that has outplayed Ryan this season. He is averaging nearly 350 yards per game and has thrown 15 touchdowns while only throwing 3 picks. The Falcons are 4-2 through 6 games, but in order for them to become a Super Bowl contender, they will have to improve on the defensive end. At 31 years old, Matt Ryan has time to help turn the Falcons into a Super Bowl team, but they have a fairly long way to go. It's definitely not impossible though.
10 Carson Palmer - 10:1
Had I made this list before the season started, Carson Palmer would've certainly cracked my top 5. With losses to the Rams and Bills through 6 games this season, I'm not even sure he deserves to be in the top 10. Palmer is almost 37 now and probably only has 2 or 3 good seasons left in him. The Cardinals definitely looked like a Super Bowl team last season after going 13-3, but this season is a different story. The Cards are sitting at 3-3 as of now, and they don't appear to be the same team as they were last season. Despite their poor start, there is still reason to believe that this team can make a Super Bowl run either this season or in the next few seasons. They have won their last 2 games, and they have a tremendously well-rounded team. Palmer definitely has a shot at a ring in the coming years, the only question is, how much longer will he last?
9 Sam Bradford - 8:1
Sam Bradford may actually be in the best position he has ever been in to win a Super Bowl, and that is the only reason he cracks the top 10. Bradford has never lived up to his 1st overall pick expectations, playing in just 2 full seasons to date and never reaching 4,000 passing yards in any season. Despite his poor play, the recently traded Bradford now finds himself on a defensively adept Vikings team that has allowed the least points scored in the league so far.
The only reason Bradford is even starting for the Vikings (Shaun Hill did get the starting nod in week 1, but Minnesota has expressed that they plan on changing that) is because former starter Teddy Bridgewater tore his ACL in practice prior to the start of the season. The Vikes are 5-0 so far, and are certainly among this years favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, so while this is most likely Bradford's best (And only) shot at winning a ring, it is certainly in the realm of possibility.
8 Marcus Mariota - 15:2
Marcus Mariota is beginning to show why he was the 2nd overall pick in the 2015 Draft. In his last two games, he has thrown for 6 touchdowns (And run for 1 more) while only throwing 1 pick (Granted, he was playing some fairly soft defenses). The Titans are 3-3, but they haven't had any overly impressive wins yet. It probably won't happen in the near future, but Mariota can absolutely win a ring at some point in his career. He is only 23 years old and has ample talent to lead a team. Tennessee finally has a run game with DeMarco Murray, and Derrick Henry looks like he'll have a bright future in the Titans' backfield as well. The Titans will have to improve their efficiency on offense to have even have a chance at making the playoffs any time soon, but Mariota has plenty of time to improve, and the Titans are moving in the right direction.
7 Andrew Luck - 15:2
Andrew luck won 33 games in his first 3 seasons in the league. Not many football players can boast that kind of track record. Unfortunately for Luck, that all changed in his 4th season. Luck was plagued by a lingering shoulder injury all of last year and only played 7 games. The Colts defense is a mess, and Luck has struggled to return to the level of play that he displayed at the beginning of his career. Indy is now 2-4 and they certainly don't look like a playoff team as of now. Luck is only 27, and he has time to revive his career. If he can return to playing at the level he was playing a few years ago, Luck will have a solid chance to win a ring. If Luck never finds his stride again and continues to get hit with the injury bug, a championship wouldn't be likely.
6 Jameis Winston - 4:1
Jameis Winston has had quite the roller coaster season. He looked like a future hall of famer in week 1 after posting 281 yards through the air along with 4 passing touchdowns. Week 2 was a different story, as he threw for 4 picks as the Cardinals dismantled the Bucs offense. Ever since, the inconsistency has remained consistent. The Bucs are 2-3 through their first five games, and Winston's performances have directly affected the outcome of each game this season. The good news for the former first overall pick is that he's not even 23, and he's already shown flashes of great quarterback play. Tampa Bay has plenty of time to solve their issues on the defensive side of the ball, so Winston's talent could definitely translate into a Super Bowl win for the Bucs at some point in his career.
5 Blake Bortles - 3:1
Blake Bortles had a tremendous sophomore campaign last year, throwing for nearly 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns. He hasn't reached the level of an elite quarterback yet, but at just 24 years old, he's on the right track to do so eventually. The Jags were a dark horse playoff contender before the start of the season, but after a 2-3 start, the hype has faded. Their "revamped" defense has been mediocre at best to this point, but there is still plenty of time for it to improve this season. The Jaguars probably won't be playing in February this year, but a playoff appearance isn't out of the question, and if not this year, then Jacksonville can probably reach the playoffs within the next few seasons. Blake Bortles' career should be on an upward trajectory, and the peak could very well be a Super Bowl ring or two.
4 Carson Wentz - 5:2
Did anyone expect Carson Wentz to be this good this early? As an Eagles fan, even I was skeptical of the North Dakota State graduate being our starting quarterback. In 5 games this season, Wentz is 8th in the league in passer rating with a mark of 99.9 and 8th in yards per attempt with 8.16. Although he started the season off with an impressive 3-0 record, Wentz has fallen back down to earth with 2 straight losses. That puts the Eagles at 3-2 on the season, but they remain a strong playoff contender in Wentz's inaugural season.
Philly's defense has been excellent thus far and they even managed to shut down a prolific Pittsburgh offense in week 3. There is plenty of hope in Philadelphia as of now, and Wentz is the cornerstone of the franchise. If he play this well in his first season, imagine what he'll be able to do in his 3rd season... and his 4th... and his 5th.
3 Dak Prescott - 5:2
Perhaps the most hyped player during the preseason, Dak Prescott has played very well thus far in the regular season. After obtaining the starting job in Dallas when Tony Romo went down with a back injury in the preseason, Dak has shown that he can manage a game with unique patience and maturity for a rookie QB. With 7 touchdowns and just 1 interception in his last 4 games, Dak has carried Dallas to their current 5-1 record.
Dak might even remain the starter when Romo returns, and even if he doesn't, Romo's career probably won't last much longer. At 36 years old and with a rich injury history, Romo shouldn't make it to 40 in the NFL. When Romo's career comes to an end, Dak is next in line to be the franchise QB in Dallas. When that opportunity comes, Dak could very well bring a championship to the Big D.
2 Cam Newton - 9:4
1-5. The Panthers are 1-5. Cam Newton looks like 2014 Cam Newton, and that is not a good sign for Panthers fans. It has becoming frighteningly realistic to predict that Carolina will miss the playoffs this season after appearing in the Super Bowl last year. Cam is still just 27 years old, but dual-threat quarterbacks weren't exactly built to last in this league, so Cam might not be around by the time he is 33 or so. If the Panthers can return to being the team that they were in 2015, Cam will have an excellent chance to win a Super Bowl ring. It might not happen this season (Although it's not mathematically impossible), but it would be hard to believe that the Panthers won't be able to return to being the dominant force that they were just a year ago in any one of the coming seasons. Cam should be able to visit the playoffs at least a few more times in his career, and he has the skill set to carry a team deep into the playoffs.
1 Derek Carr - 2:1
It is difficult to think of a more promising quarterback that is 25 years old or younger. That's because there are none. Derek Carr is quickly becoming one of the more prominent steals of the 2014 draft, and it appears that he is steadily progressing in each and every season he has played in the league. Along with Carr's improvement, the Raiders are also improving immensely. At 4-2, the Raiders currently find themselves atop a division which features the defending Super Bowl champ and another solid playoff team from last year. Oakland's passing offense is clicking with Carr under center, and they could make a playoff run as early as this season. Carr has an excellent chance to be a Super Bowl Champ at some point in his career, and it may happen sooner than we all thought it would.
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