Highlights

• Mel Kiper, the respected NFL Draft guru, has made notable mistakes in his player evaluations, proving the difficulty of predicting player performance.
• Kiper's mis-evaluations extend beyond draft prospects and include veteran NFL players like Wes Welker and Russell Wilson.
• Some of Kiper's biggest draft misses include Ki-Jana Carter, Wes Welker, Jimmy Clausen, Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Mike Williams, Aaron Curry, JaMarcus Russell, Ricky Stanzi, and Andre Wadsworth.

Mel Kiper is a draft pundit pioneer who has been the most well-respected figure in the NFL Draft community since ESPN began covering the annual event in 1984. However, even he is not immune to making mistakes in his evaluations, as the guru has had his fair share of noteworthy misses over the years.

He may be the face of the program during draft season, but he is also proof of how difficult it is to gauge how a player will perform without seeing them play at the professional level. While his most memorable bad takes were regarding his analysis of draft prospects, his mis-evaluations are not limited to those occasions.

UPDATE: 2024/01/31 18:00 EST BY STEFANO MOCELLA

When your job is based on giving strong opinions, there's going to be an occasional glaring error. Mel Kiper has been the face of ESPN's coverage of the NFL Draft and football prospects for the last 40 years (he started with ESPN during the 1984 draft coverage) and fans wait every year for Mel's Mock Draft. As with any scout, there is no foolproof way of evaluating football prospects, as even the all-time great GMs and scouts make their share of mistakes. With that said, let's have a look at some of Mel Kiper's biggest mistakes in his 40-year career as ESPN's resident draft guru.

10 Ki-Jana Carter Was The 1st Overall Pick In 1995

Kiper Compared Carter To NFL Legend Bo Jackson

• Heisman Trophy runner-up
• Drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals
• Tore his ACL in his first preseason game

Ki-Jana Carter picked a great time to have one of the most dominant games of his life, as his 156-yard, three-touchdown performance in the 1995 Rose Bowl set the stage for the Bengals to select him first overall (in a trade-up) in that year's draft. The physically gifted running back may have been highly regarded by everyone in the draft community, but nobody was more bullish on him than Mel Kiper, who declared he could be the next Bo Jackson.

The Penn State product missed his entire rookie season after suffering a torn ACL on the third carry of his first preseason game and never regained the explosiveness he displayed in college. Carter never lived up to Mad Mel's lofty expectations, as the only comparison to be made regarding their careers is that they were both derailed by injuries.

9 Wes Welker Was Undrafted In 2004

Kiper Criticized Patriots For Trading For Welker In 2007

• Welker was an undrafted free agent, signed with the Miami Dolphins
• Traded to the New England Patriots in 2007 for a 2nd and 7th-round pick
• Led the league in receptions in first season with New England

Nobody expected Wes Welker to become a perennial Pro Bowler when the diminutive pass-catcher came out of Texas Tech in 2004, which caused him to go undrafted. He outperformed expectations and became a valued contributor on both special teams and offense during his first three years in the league, all of which were with the Dolphins.

The Patriots saw a lot of him early in his career, and they came away impressed enough to trade a second and seventh-round pick for him ahead of the 2007 season. Kiper thought New England was making a mistake and did not believe the slot specialist was worth that compensation. Nevertheless, he quickly proved to be a bargain, as he led the league in catches in his first year in New England and was one of the most prolific receivers of his generation.

8 Jimmy Clausen - Drafted By Carolina In Round 2 Of 2010 Draft

Kiper Claimed He Would Retire If Clausen Didn't Become A Star

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• Notre Dame QB Drafted By Carolina Panthers In 2nd Round
• Replaced By Cam Newton As Starter The Following Season
• Had A Career Interception to Touchdown Ratio of 2:1

Jimmy Clausen was the man that was supposed to end the great Mel Kiper's career. The draft expert was confident enough in Clausen to proclaim that he would retire if the Notre Dame product (who was ranked fourth on his big board) was not a successful quarterback after eight seasons.

If the blind confidence he had in a player who never played in the NFL was not surprising enough, the fact most considered Clausen a flawed second-round prospect made his infatuation even more perplexing. The Panthers selected him in the second round, and he failed to live up to anybody's expectations during his career, as he had a 2:1 career interception-to-touchdown ratio and was out of the league three years before Kiper's pledge came to fruition.

7 Russell Wilson - Draft Steal By Seattle Seahawks In 3rd Round

Kiper Questioned His Size At QB

• Won Super Bowl 48 With Seahawks
• 9-Time Pro Bowler
• Second-Team All Pro (2019)

Whatever you think of Russell Wilson at this stage of his career, no one can deny the Seahawks absolutely made the right move by drafting him back in 2012. Many questioned the Seahawks' decision to select Russell Wilson in the third round of the 2012 NFL Draft, as they did not believe his game would translate to the pros, and Seattle already broke the bank on Matt Flynn in free agency. Mel Kiper was one of the unfortunate experts who showed a glaring lack of expertise in his evaluation of the undersized signal-caller. He compared him to fellow sub-six-foot quarterback Seneca Wallace and believed he belonged in the fourth round.

Nevertheless, Wilson made quick work of Flynn and Tavaris Jackson after an outstanding preseason performance and grabbed the starting job heading into Week 1. He provided a spark to Seattle's offense as soon as he stepped foot on the field and has been one of the league's most dynamic quarterbacks of the previous decade.

6 Richard Sherman - 5th Round Steal By Seattle In 2011

D+ Rating On Kiper's Post-Draft Grade

• 5th Round Pick out of Stanford University
• 3x First-Team All-Pro
• Key piece of Seattle's vaunted 'Legion of Boom'

Russell Wilson was not the only Seahawks selection that Mel Kiper was not confident in, as he had a similar opinion of Richard Sherman, whom Seattle selected in the fifth round the year prior. While he might not have been as outspoken in his viewpoint as he was in the latter instance, he still said that the Stanford product (who became one of the biggest draft steals of all time) was nothing more than an average fifth-round selection. In fact, Kiper rated Seattle's entire 2011 class, many of whom were key pieces for their Super Bowl run, at a D+.

Sherman wasted no time proving Kiper wrong, as he took over the starting job midway through his rookie year and played at an incredibly high level right out of the gate. He established himself as one of the league's premier cover men and was arguably the best player on Seattle's famous Legion of Boom defense. If the draft guru had one mulligan in his career, he might use it to redo his evaluation of the Seahawks' 2011 class, as he gave them a D+ grade for a draft that featured two long-time defensive starters in Sherman and K.J. Wright and Super Bowl 48 MVP Malcolm Smith.

5 Mike Williams - 10th Overall Pick By Detroit Lions

Kiper Claimed The WR Would Be Hall-of-Fame Bound

• Played just two seasons with Detroit Lions
• Traded to Oakland Raiders in 2007
• Played five NFL seasons with four teams

Speaking of takes that Kiper wishes he could have back, the draft expert was so confident in Syracuse wideout Mike Williams in 2005 that he claimed the receiver would be in the Hall of Fame after the Lions selected him with the 10th pick. He might not have been alone in his praise, but it was still shocking that he was so bullish on a player that had never played a down in the NFL.

The towering pass-catcher failed to adjust to the speed of the NFL and fell well below the lofty expectations Kiper had for him. He only played two years in Detroit before they traded him to the Raiders for pennies on the dollar. He was not only one of Kiper's biggest misses but was also one of the biggest draft busts in league history.

4 Aaron Curry - Drafted By Seattle Seahawks In 1st Round Of 2009 Draft

One Of Kiper's Highest-Rated 2009 Prospects

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• Recorded just 5.5 career sacks
• Traded to Oakland Raiders in his third season
• Played just 48 NFL games before retiring

Rarely does a player from Wake Forest find himself in the conversation to be the top pick in the draft, but linebacker Aaron Curry was the exception to that rule, as he was considered one of the best players in the 2009 NFL Draft. Kiper bought into the hype and crowned the versatile 'backer as the best player and safest prospect in the class.

Nevertheless, the safest aspect of Curry's game was his affinity for avoiding contact by being out of position when the opposing offense ran a fake in his direction, as he lacked the instincts to play with his head above water in the pros. Seattle traded him to the Raiders for multiple late-round selections midway through his third year, and he only recorded 5.5 career sacks. Fortunately, Curry has begun a successful coaching career thus far, now serving as the Steelers' linebackers coach.

3 JaMarcus Russell - Drafted 1st Overall In 2007

Arguably Kiper's Biggest Draft Bust Ever

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• Compared to John Elway in pre-draft evaluation
• Kiper claimed he could be an elite QB within three years
• Russell was out of the NFL after three seasons

As crazy as it sounds, JaMarcus Russell was lauded as a generational quarterback prospect ahead of the 2007 NFL Draft and got selected by the Raiders with the top pick in the class. Mel Kiper was especially high on the talented LSU product, as he compared him to John Elway in his pre-draft evaluation and said he could be one of the league's best quarterbacks within three years.

Nevertheless, his career only lasted three years before attitude issues and poor play derailed any chance he had at finding success. While he possessed all the necessary physical abilities to thrive, he lacked the mental makeup to have staying power in the league and is one of the most egregious draft busts in league history.

2 Ricky Stanzi - 5th Round Selection By Kansas City In 2011

Kiper Compared Stanzi To Tom Brady

• Kiper felt Stanzi could be the steal of the draft
• Stanzi played a 'pro-style' offense at Iowa
• Never ended up being a starter in an NFL game

The 2011 NFL Draft featured a ton of talent at the quarterback position, and a few signal-callers achieved long-lasting success from the class, including Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Nevertheless, Kiper hitched his wagon to Ricky Stanzi, an unheralded fifth-round selection, as the passer he thought would achieve the most success since he could sit and learn for a few seasons in Kansas City before taking over the starting job.

The guru also believed his experience in a pro-style offense would allow him to find success in the pros, and he even compared him to Tom Brady (is nothing sacred?) during the pre-draft process. His evaluation of Stanzi proved to be completely ill-informed, as he only played three years before bouncing around various practice squads and never threw a regular-season pass.

1 Andre Wadsworth - Drafted 3rd Overall By Ariziona In 1998

Ranked As Kiper's No.1 Overall Player In 1998, Ahead Of Peyton Manning

• Drafted ahead of Charles Woodson
• Compared to Bruce Smith in pre-draft analysis
• Wadsworth recorded just 8.5 career sacks

The 1998 NFL Draft was a top-heavy class that featured two players who were amongst the best to ever play their respective position in Charles Woodson and Peyton Manning. However, neither player was ranked as the top overall player on Kiper's draft board, as that distinction belonged to Florida State pass-rusher Andre Wadsworth, who he compared to Bruce Smith and claimed was as close to a sure thing as one could find.

The Cardinals bought into that notion, as they grabbed the physically gifted defensive end with the third pick and made him the first non-quarterback selected. If they had a do-over, they certainly would have picked Woodson, as Wadsworth never lived up to expectations and only recorded 8.5 career sacks in three seasons.