How John Tavares Will Impact Mitch Marner’s Next Contract

The signing of John Tavares in Toronto won't just affect the win/loss record of the Toronto Maple Leafs, it should directly affect Mitch Marner's next contract.

Marner is coming up for a contract renewal as a restricted free agent next summer and while the Leafs have been rumored to be playing a bit of hardball — and may have no choice but to based on how tight their salary cap situation will be — holding off on signing Marner until the end of next season could be a very costly mistake for the franchise. As a winger, Marner is verging on the level of elite. His underlying numbers are right on par with some of the top flanks in the game and with Tavares on board, things should only improve.

Tavares is set to play distributor to Marner for most of the season. Barring an inexplicable lack of chemistry, Marner should have one of the best seasons of his NHL career. He'll see more points, make it so the Leafs can't afford to lose the Marner/Tavares pairing and playoff success means more money for everyone.

The Leafs need to tread cautiously here.

Tavares Set A Bar For Toronto Contracts

By signing John Tavares, the Maple Leafs told everyone in the organization they’re prepared to spend money to be better than good. Tavares is arguably a top-ten center in the NHL but many argue $11 million per season in an overpayment. Whether or not that’s true isn’t relevant to just Marner. It is now relevant in terms of the bar Tavares just set for players who out-produce or post numbers on the same level of the Leafs shiny new toy.

If Marner gets anywhere near the point production Tavares does (and he may out-produce him if Tavares does his job), Marner is in for a huge raise. That raise will be somewhere in the neighbourhood of what the Leafs just gave Tavares. Much less sends a message the team doesn't value production as much as it does making a splash.

If the Leafs are looking at keeping their young core together long-term, they need to send the right messaging from day one.

Will Raise Marner Point Totals

Marner led all Leafs in scoring in both the regular season and the playoffs. As per an article by Luke Fox of Sportsnet, "He was the one tapped by Leafs brass “for a quick 20-minute skate” when the Leafs wanted to make a video to recruit Tavares from New York. If Marner was used to entice Tavares, the idea is that the two players will form an unstoppable duo. If so, Marner's numbers will surely skyrocket.

Marner said, "For me, personally, it kinda makes me think I need to shoot more. Going into this season, I have to be ready to shoot. He can make those plays quick.” That's a scary thought for opponents when you consider the player who led the Leafs with 69 points is coming in ready and willing to fire the puck. How is a point-per-game not the benchmark he's setting for himself?

If Tavares is keen on making the players around him better, Marner will be the person most directly affected.

A Duo That Can't Be Split Up

If Tavares and Marner produce the way people are expecting them to, Marner becomes the man who proved signing Tavares to an $11 million deal was a good bet. As a result, the team won't dare split them up. Auston Matthews will play with William Nylander and Marner and Tavares will be attached at the hip.

With Marner on the verge of being indispensable, his agent can use that as a tool. He'll argue, not only do the Leafs risk losing Marner's production, the franchise risks seeing Tavares' production fall as well. While Toronto could argue Tavares is productive no matter who he plays with, it will all depend on the numbers. Should these two be magic together, losing one could mean losing a good chunk of the other?

Playoff Success

Finally, if the Leafs make the playoffs and see success in a postseason run, Marner and the rest of the cast in Toronto become that much more important. Any team that sees extended playoff success employs players rewarded for that success.

Tom Wilson of the Washington Capitals just received a huge payday over six years for one good run in the playoffs. If Wilson can get over $5 million per season for what could be half the production, what will Marner get? Marner producing outside the regular season could mean another million per year. Marner himself said, “Back-to-back first-round exits, that’s obviously not something we want to keep doing." Knowing the team is expected to go far, he added, "This is the year we have to step up another level and challenge each other. We’re excited for this moment.”

Should the organization move forward and should Marner be a huge part of that success, it will be because of Tavares and they'll all get richer for it.

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