The first day of NHL free agency is like Christmas to hockey fans.
Actually, we should call it Christmas to NHL players, because many free agents got paid more than they're worth. Think of it as an overly generous raise by the general managers, in a more positive perspective.
We saw a very slow MLB free agent market in 2018, because front office executives and GMS were getting tired of overpaying for top talent, only to get little production. They waited and waited before finally signing free agents to deals that they believed were fair.
Well, we can't say the same happened in the NHL market. As usual, teams threw away big bucks at players who definitely got more than they should. We know the Toronto Maple Leafs won't regret signing John Tavares, while the Philadelphia Flyers should get multiple 20-30 goal seasons from James van Riemsdyk.
But boy, it doesn't take a Einstein to guess just which NHL free agents will disappoint. We could write a long list of free agents that were overpaid, but I'll narrow it down to five here.
Leo Komarov
The Islanders were desperate to replace the void left by captain John Tavares, so new GM Lou Lamoriello gave Komarov a four-year contract worth $12 million. He would have been better off signing James Neal or JVR to long term contracts.
Komarov relies plenty on his blazing speed, but he's already 31 years of age. Komarov scored just seven goals and 19 points last season, and he's never put up more than 36 points in a single campaign.
The Islanders could have found a more proven 20-30 goal man, and keep in mind they have nearly $24 million in cap room, per CapFriendly.com. Why Lamoriello didn't decide to break the bank on a sniper like Neal or van Riemsdyk is mind-boggling, and signing Komarov won't replace much of the offense Tavares left.
Tyler Bozak
The St. Louis Blues missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011, and the organization prioritized getting more centers to help out Brayden Schenn. But before they acquired Ryan O'Reilly from the Buffalo Sabres, the Blues overpaid for 32-year-old Tyler Bozak, whom the Leafs had no problem moving on from.
If Bozak wasn't 32 years of age, I would be okay with the Blues giving him $15 million over three years. Instead, you're giving a No. 3 center $5 million a season. And let's not forget that Bozak has quite horrible puck possession stats.
With O'Reilly and Schenn slotted in as the top two centers, the Blues have no need to pay Bozak this much money. His age, 40-50 point ceiling and bad puck possession numbers all add up to one thing: A bad contract that they will regret.
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Jack Johnson
The Pittsburgh Penguins won the Stanley Cup in 2016 and '17, without having any star blueliners on the roster. But GM Jim Rutherford was desperate to upgrade a leaky defense, so he dealt away speedy winger Conor Sheary (along with Matt Hunwick), to the Buffalo Sabres.
This opened up room for Rutherford to hand 31-year-old defenceman Jack Johnson a five-year, $16.25 million deal. And though it's hard to question any of Rutherford's decisions, this one is a head-scratcher.
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Johnson - once renowned for his good offensive game - had just three goals and 11 points last season for the Columbus Blue Jackets. It's been three years since he had 40 points in a season, and Johnson owns a woeful 47.2 Corsi For percentage for his career.
Yeah, this is not a smart trade. Johnson is not going to impact the defense that much. And it's always risk giving a guy in his 30s a multi-year deal. Johnson has slowed down in recent seasons, and it's unreasonable to think he'll get better as he prepares for his age-32 season.
Jay Beagle
Vancouver Canucks fans are promised every year from the front office that a rebuild is in order, which would normally mean avoiding pricey free agents. But GM Jim Benning signed veteran Jay Beagle to a four-year contract worth $12 million, which is a lot for a 32-year-old tough guy.
Beagle was a major impact player during the Washington Capitals' playoff run, culminating in a Stanley Cup championship. But $3 million/per for four years is way too much for a player whose ceiling is 20-30 points.
The Canucks are supposed to be injecting their young players into the lineup next season, but the 32-year-old Beagle will take significant time away from them. No clue what Vancouver was doing here.
Paul Stastny
The Winnipeg Jets wanted to keep veteran center Paul Stastny, but GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will not regret letting the 32-year-old go to the Vegas Golden Knights. Stastny signed a three-year, $19.5 million deal with the team that lost two of its top scorers, David Perron and James Neal.
Don't let Stastny's strong playoff showing (15 points in 17 games), deceive you. He's no longer your consistent 60-70 point centre, but rather closer to the 40-50 point range. Given his age and declining speed and skills, it's safe to say George McPhee is going to regret giving Stastny this much money and term. Way too much.