This weekend is WWE's Money In the Bank PPV and once again we've got both a men's and women's version to speculate over. So another year goes by without the Naomi Vs Finn battle we're all secretly waiting for. Nevertheless, the men's version is particularly interesting because 7 of the 8 participants have never held top championship gold in WWE before, so barring a Randy Orton win there's a good chance of a crowd-pleasing victor. The women's match has it's own interesting possibilities, although more than half in that match have been champion before. Winners aside the one thing we can guarantee is awesome athletes falling from metal triangles, and if that's not the meaning of Christmas in May, what is?
We'll give each participant a percentage chance of claiming their respective briefcase and contract. Will the percentages match expectations? Will they even add up to 100%? Read on to find out!!
The newest addition to the match via "defeating" Braun Strowman. Sami would normally be a good candidate for that underdog, feel-good potential but with his heel turn, he's got himself under fire. Braun Strowman is not known for taking things lightly, in fact, he often takes things that are incredibly heavy.
He'll probably his way down to the ring and emphatically ends Sami's chances of winning. Possibly by javelining his limp body into the upper deck, wrestling's take on an 'upper-decker'. Chance of winning: 1%
The man who made way for Kofi Kingston's rise gets another chance at a shot at an opportunity at a prospect at a title match! He may have lost his first name but he's got something this match definitely needs. He has the ability to look like he's dying every time something epic happens to him!
Ali is currently the torch-bearer for any 205 Live fans hoping that that show can be a path to main roster success. So the man has fans on his side, is an awesome in-ring talent, but unfortunately looks like this year's 'guy who wipes himself out' candidate. Chance of winning: 5%
We're all sort of dismissing the chances of Randy Orton winning this match for various reasons. A: He absolutely doesn't need it. B: He's won it before. C: He's the only person in the match whose already been a top-level champion, etc... Except that hasn't stopped Randy winning stuff like this in the past.
He didn't need the briefcase the first time he won it, and he won a Royal Rumble for a second time when literally nobody thought he needed it or really wanted to see it. So despite thinking he genuinely has zero percent chance, Randy gets an automatic buffer percentage just in case. Chance of winning: 10%
If accolades like the Money In The Bank briefcase were given out to physically complete packages, Andrade would be close to a lock. As things are, we have to asses whether WWE wants to pull the trigger on their big Hispanic star who notably needs a mouthpiece.
Personally, Zelina Vega is nothing but excellence added onto excellence, but we also know Vince likes his world champions to be able to present WWE verbally, which Andrade is taking baby steps at. He'll be spectacular in the match, and yet I wish this number was higher. Chance of winning: 15%
Finn on paper looks like a prime candidate to hold the briefcase. He could win, summon his demon form, and cash in on a big stage. Then unsummon the demon and hit the showers, I guess. Probably a work-hazard having a demon backstage. Anyway, unfortunately, Finn already has some hardware that in this case is a big, big knock against him. The Intercontinental Championship.
A bunch of times the reigning Intercontinental Championship holder has entered Money In The Bank and precisely none of those champions have come away with extra baggage to show for it. These days the Intercontinental title is WWE shorthand for 'placeholder' and that means he's at long odds to get the briefcase. Chance of winning: 9%
He's won it before and squandered it so maybe he's out of contention. Maybe. It seems like Vince McMahon has a never-ending well of support for Corbin's particular brand of jeer-magnetism heelishness.
Crowds are completely against him the moment his music hits and that means he's always a chance of getting something just to antagonize them even more. That said, his last time with the case was such a disaster that I can't see him unhooking it again so relatively soon. Chance of winning: 10%
Here's the guy WWE has so very carefully kept on the simmer for the better part of 13 months. McIntyre has never looked more dangerous. He's not lost major matches clean besides at Wrestlemania to Roman Reigns. He looks like a killer. He has a finisher that puts people away and can be used on anyone from a bunch of angles.
At this point, WWE has held off pushing this 'Hybrid Highlander' as long as possible. If Drew gets shoved aside for someone else again the shine is going to become rust. He's the most likely and should be carrying the case when the dust settles all things being equal. Chance of winning: 33%
The excitement machine who will make the most of this match to put his name front and center. Usually, someone like Ricochet would be slotted to do 'the big move' that is on highlight reels for weeks to follow, but with Ali in the match as well, his chances to actually win the match rise significantly.
Ricochet's only real negative is that he's so new to the main roster there's a chance they'll make him wait out of sheer habit. There's also a heavy leaning for heels to win this type of match over faces, so despite being my second highest pick, he's still trailing in raw numbers. Chance of winning: 17%
Ember Moon has the advantage of being both a highlight-reel in the ring and one of the minority of women in this match to never hold a WWE Women's Championship on the main roster.
With those factors in play, I see her as having a legitimate surprise chance of walking out with the briefcase if WWE doesn't go with the most likely option. At the very least we're almost guaranteed to see an Eclipse Stunner off of a ladder and that's worth the price of the WWE Network for the month all on its own. Chance of winning: 30%
Bayley hasn't looked half as good as she did in NXT, but that argument is getting old. At this point she needs to show new strings to her bow otherwise she's never going to sniff another women's championship in WWE. That means things like winning the Money In The Bank are also going to be beyond her grasp.
Although she's shown a slight spark of a resurgence since moving to Smackdown, I'm seeing her much more likely to be the final obstacle someone else pushes off the ladder to secure the briefcase. Not impossible, but marginal. Chance of winning: 15%
Carmella was the unlikely winner of the first-ever women's Money In The Bank (and technically the second), so her chances of a 'threepeat' are incredibly small. They've already told her optimum story, holding the case for ages before finally cashing in.
Since her title reign ended she's been little more than a dancing sidekick to R-Truth. That doesn't bode well for anything here. She's so far off the mark that she is going to be one of a pair we're giving virtually no look in. Chance of winning: 1%
Alexa Bliss is the other woman in this match to have already won the briefcase and cashed in successfully. You might not have remembered it because if you blinked, you missed it since she cashed in that same night on Nia Jax. Alexa, like Carmella, isn't likely to add to her briefcase collection for a few reasons.
Her recent injury status means she is far from a reliable holder unless she spends the next year only hosting Moment Of Bliss. She's also won the women's title enough times that she can get title shots on request, further negating her chances this time around. Chance of winning: 5%
We don't love Mandy Rose as much as Corey Graves does (how could anyone!?) but she's a serious contender here. She's got several elements working in her favor. Not least of which is her continuing storyline with Sonya Deville, with her partner having stepped aside to allow Mandy to be the one in this match.
There's tension there and the only question is whether Sonya helps Mandy win the thing, and if so does Mandy's ego get beyond what Sonya can stomach. From a storyline perspective, Mandy Rose is the front-runner. Chance of winning: 40%
Naomi is among the most naturally gifted women in the entire WWE, and she is a former women's champion. That said, this feels like she's there to be spectacular, but not successful. With her array of springboard and flying attacks, she's going to be ensuring the women's match keeps up with the men's in terms of highlight-reel potential.
As much as I'd like to see her return to the title picture, the combination of Becky being a face and Naomi having fallen down the pecking order means she's less likely to feature at the end. Chance of winning: 5%
The unquestioned veteran of the women's division in WWE. Natalya is in this match to make sure things go smoothly and nobody gets ladder-battered.
She's in a bit of limbo in terms of her place in the women's division, not quite in the title hunt nor did her tag-team with Beth Phoenix persist past Wrestlemania. With all of that said and no clear story presenting itself, Nattie is my least likely contender for the briefcase. Chance of winning: 1%
Someone backstage loves Dana Brooke. They see something in her that isn't yet quite apparent to the majority of us fans, however. She's gone through so many stages without making much of an impression, and now she's playing the plucky underdog with determination and heart.
The only real chance she has of winning this match is if they're set on telling a major fairytale story with her, but more likely this is going to be like her title shot against Ronda Rousey. She's there to make others look good and maybe find a moment to stand out and raise her stock. Chance of winning: 3%